》View SMM Cobalt and Lithium Product Prices, Data, and Market Analysis
》Subscribe to View Historical Spot Price Trends of SMM Cobalt and Lithium Products
In July 2025, the average spot price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 122,237 yuan/mt, up 680 yuan/mt MoM from June. Overall, prices fluctuated in three stages during July:
- Early July: Prices rebounded due to disruptions in Indonesia's nickel ore quota policy and a temporary decline in LME and domestic inventories.
- Mid-July: Trump announced a 15%-40% tariff increase on multiple countries starting August 1, escalating macro risk-aversion sentiment and suppressing the rebound momentum.
- Month-end: Domestic "anti-rat race" policies stimulated sentiment in industrial products, with nickel prices reaching a monthly high on July 24 (the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 125,000 yuan/mt), before pulling back sharply due to sentiment digestion and macro headwinds (hawkish US Fed).
From a supply and demand perspective, SMM refined nickel production in July increased by 3% MoM and 14% YoY, with domestic refined nickel enterprises operating at a 61% rate. Production rhythms of top-tier enterprises remained stable in July, with a few smelters increasing output, driving a slight increase in overall refined nickel production. On the demand side, spot trading remained sluggish throughout July, with overall trading volume decreasing by 10%-20% MoM from June, mainly due to entering the off-season, with downstream purchases only meeting immediate needs. Additionally, nickel prices fluctuated sharply in July driven by macro sentiment, with downstream players adopting a wait-and-see attitude.
Looking ahead, the US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at its July policy meeting, with Powell stating that "it is too early to judge a September interest rate cut," strengthening the US dollar index. Meanwhile, the short-term stimulus of domestic "anti-rat race" policies on industrial products has weakened, with the Political Bureau meeting emphasizing "market-oriented and rule-of-law governance of overcapacity." It is expected that nickel will return to the fundamental logic of surplus, with the off-season demand continuing, the price center moving downwards, and the price range expected to be 118,000-125,000 yuan/mt.
